Consumers who skipped the Black Friday deluge of deep discounting haven't necessarily missed out on all the best deals of the holiday season. But shoppers who hold out too long, thinking retailers will cave with major price cuts late in the game, may find themselves out of luck.
Retailers this year didn't fire all of their best shots on the traditional opening weekend after Thanksgiving. Electronics, apparel, department, warehouse and even grocery stores have a number of strategically planned promotions on tap from now until Christmas, retail companies and analysts say.
"Every weekend is going to be Black Friday weekend," says Marshall Cohen, chief industry analyst for retail consultant NPD Group.
But last-minute shoppers should take heed: If you see something you like and the price sounds good, get it because it might not be there later. Retailers want to avoid the panic-induced sales they had to institute last year to clear holiday merchandise so they are keeping much tighter reins on inventory. As a result, consumers will see fewer sweaters and home goods on shelves and coats and pants on racks.
Last-Minute Shoppers Lose Out
"This is not the year to play chicken with retailers," says Scott Krugman, vice president for the National Retail Federation. "If you're a last-minute shopper, you're going to be disappointed."
Also, be sure to read the fine print. Many retailers will offer hot products in limited numbers. Toys "R" Us, for example, will have the popular Zhu Zhu Pets in stock for $9.99, but will only sell one per household, until supplies are exhausted.
While consumer spending hasn't collapsed this year, it hasn't been robust either. That has already touched off price wars among some of the biggest discount retailers, hoping to lure whatever business is out there.
Wal-Mart Stores is involved in a few, one with Toys "R" Us on $10 toys and another with Amazon.com and Target over online book sales. Certain titles are $9 at Amazon, $8.99 at Target and $8.98 at Wal-Mart. Amazon and Wal-Mart even are tussling over Easy-Bake ovens. The toy oven was originally priced at $28, until Wal-Mart slashed it to $17. Amazon responded by cutting its price to $18.
So don't be afraid to ask a retailer to match a competitor's advertised price. Both Wal-Mart and Target, for example, will honor lower prices on identical products, though they will exclude early-bird, door-buster or limited-time deals. Most other major retailers are doing the same.
"That's why it's such a good time to be a consumer," Mr. Krugman says.
Expect to see plenty of deals on flat-panel TVs, Blu-ray disc players, fine jewelry and lots of household goods.
"Consumers have really shifted toward more essential spending on basic things," says Michael Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers. "Retailers have embraced that this year and will be selling more home or stay-at-home types of goods."
Sears is selling a three-gallon air compressor, good for many household chores, for $79.99. Kmart has a 26-inch high-definition LCD TV on sale for $250. Staples is giving $60 off the price of a Hewlett-Packard personal computer and a wireless printer.
Apparel, still the most popular gift under the tree, will be competitively priced nearly everywhere. J.C. Penney is selling women's boots for as low as $29.99 and long-sleeve T-shirts for $6.99. Macy's is selling men's cashmere sweaters half off at $105.
Many apparel retailers are turning to an old favorite known as "BOGO," or "buy one, get one." Customers who buy one pair of jeans at Express stores can get 50% off a second pair. Pacific Sunwear has had a "buy two, get one free" promotion on flannel and denim.
Even gift cards will be on sale. Costco has six $15 iTunes gift cards on sale for $74.99. Kroger is giving customers $10 gift cards for every $100 spent.
Don't expect every retailer to have big holiday sales. Nordstrom just ended its women's half-yearly sales and won't start the men's version until Dec. 26. Until then, the retailer has "sharpened prices in a lot of categories," but won't be hosting any holiday sales, says Nordstrom spokesman Colin Johnson.
Shopping Tips
Here are some strategies for this holiday season:
If you see something you have to have, get it. Chances are it won't be there later for a cheaper price.
Make a list. Stick to it. Retailers use big sales on items like TVs as a "loss leader," meaning they'll get you in the store and hope you'll buy more than what you planned.
Don't count on fire sales. "There won't be any amazing deals except for door busters this year," says NPD's Mr. Cohen.
Be prepared to see "out of stock" on many items.
Plan on shopping more. Tight inventories mean you'll have to look around at different stores for that perfect gift.
Don't wait till after Christmas for a better deal. "If you can't find much now," says the ICSC's Mr. Niemira, "you'll find even less after Christmas."
